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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 26, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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right now saying social security is not part of the discussion. he is the white house spokesperson. >> as far as fiscal cliff goes. we'll keep that conversation going tomorrow. thanks for joining us here on "closing bell." >> that does it for the "closing bell." coming up next, "fast money" starts right now. wall street screams before the year is up, buy stocks. >> all upgraded today. should you be buying the hype on some of the most beaten down names on the street? >> can you compete if the rest of the street is on the inside while you are looking in. >> mathew benefit with his attorney moments ago. a hearing to set bail at $5 million in the complaint it says he traded on a pivotal trial. >> that's where we come in to level the playing field. "fast money" starts right now.
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and live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square i am mandy standing in for melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. retail mobility. the whole weekend was an online shopping event. and hain fights back. we have the ceo on the show with his take plus cliff hanger. it is the cloud hanging over investors. should you be encouraged by the latest comments out of washington. let's get to the top story. should you be betting on some of the tech names? you have facebook, yahoo all getting upgrades. should you be buying to the rebound. grasso, goldman sachs is saying conviction for yahoo. >> yahoo i agree with.
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for me facebook was a buying opportunity based on technicals. yahoo is in an improve me stage. 19 is real resistance. marissa may erwhen she came back six hours after having a baby she came back. to me that was -- >> i'm looking for paternity leave these days. >> you have to go to norway for that one. >> it is a tremendous story. they are investing. they are buying more opportunities. they still have competition but the stock is really proving itself but it is at a make or break section right here. it has to cross over $19.50 just to be precise. >> and for facebook it is trying to grind its way back to $38. it is a long way below that. any love. >> this is definitely one where you are getting more data to
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look at the comps score data up 6.4 on mobile. the mobile revs btig, burn stein, these guys are saying the trajectory on the revenue line is what is doing it. this is the story of an unloved stock where people are no longer speculating. it is at the lowest we have seen since the ipo. this is part of the story. they are executing and succeeding. one story with the whole cyber monday -- i think i owe you guys $5. we have a little bet tonight. everybody gets $5. facebook, social networking was a big part of the story over the weekend. facebook is delivering but i think it is more about people trading in its favor. >> when you look at facebook this is a stock that was down to $20 a share after july 25 when it really broke down on the earnings. what are you going to do about
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mobile. 0 revenue for mobile and q 3 it is up 14% and 15%. that is what really got everybody excited. i think there is plenty of upside. when they get into some of the other platforms particularly into search facebook seems to be very, very cheap. when you look at the options markets they are buying the 26 calls. they expect this name to continue to work to the upside. they still have about 75% of their stake. that stock i think is extremely cheap and has an amazing amount of upside. when you are looking at rim this is a trade. this is not anything about investments. this is a company that has been losing market share. they have products that have people a little bit excited. the options right now all the volume remains in the weekly options but this if you are looking for beta trades take a look at apple. everybody is excited. we are up 13%.
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take a look at something like research in motion up over 50% in the last month. if you want beta and trades there are trades out there. if you want investments apple. >> trading on hope. >> fiscal cliff, two words that are completely banned today. that jar will be full. let's take a look at trouble tick names. we have facebook. to what extent are the moves we are seeing at the moment and the upgrades really just an unwinding of the excessive pessimism? >> too much lop sided sentmism. i would separate them. a month ago there was almost no value attributed to the on going business. now there is a little bit of hope in the next generation. that remains to be seen. facebook has been up 20% in
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short term basis two prior times since its ipo in may. we have been taught not to chase it too hard when it gets to these levels. if it works it's because it is an investment not because somehow this trade is going to unleash a lot. >> i am wondering one of the reasons for one of the upgrades on facebook was there are more ads appearing on mobile news feeds and facebook apps. great in terms of revenue. for me if i am bombarded by a pile of ads that would turn me off. >> that is the big picture doubt. and that is the user frustrated in general. >> where are we going with rim? you said there is a different valuation mentally put on this name. what prism should we look through to see the true valuation? >> is it just a matter of kind
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of a perennial to the other hand set makers or is it something that is more than that? i think it is actually an upside scenario. january is when we see the actual results and sales. i don't think you can really estimate that yet. >> i would like to bring in scott nations. what say you to these tech upgrades? >> i think the interesting thing here about rim is the fact that it is a trade partly because black berry 10 doesn't have the physical keyboard that everybody loves. mike is talking about companies where the pessimism was overdone. there is a company in chicago that is the poster child for that. i would like to hear what he has to say about that in his group on. they have gotten pommelled and the pessimism you can cut it with a knife. it is probably the worst name in
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the space but is it cheap right now? >> a lot of people say this is a broken business model. >> it's really the one public way to play the pessimism as to whether this is an enduring business model. i don't know if you can say it is cheap based on what. it is not particularly a virtual business model. it is people trying to sell these business owners on the group on idea. i don't know. i do think i can definitely guarantee people piled on too much on the negative side of it. beyond where that gets you i'm not sure. >> maybe cheap for a reason. we have kala who has i believe a market flash on special dividend players. >> we have been talking about special dividends for weeks and months. just after the bell we had a spate of companies issue special dividends before the end of the year. we have dillards with with a $5 per share. we have sl industries.
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and probably most interestingly we have las vegas sands with 2.75 per share. that is backed by the big guy who was leading the superpack behind governor romney and his bid for president. he is a very political ceo. >> absolutely. the words fiscal cliff and cyber monday may be banned. i like these words. i like these two words, special and dividend and we are getting a lot of them these days. >> we have a few weekz left. it can go close to the end but you don't want to be at the very end. i think the las vegas sands one is very interesting. is there a way to unlock value. i like the scenario where you have a rich owner who clearly is economically driven. a guy who is a perfect example,
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we are share holders of that. other names that could fall into that same category something like an oracle wouldn't be shocking to see something there. apple i am less excited if they will do something. maybe even a microsoft. that wouldn't be shocking, as well. i wouldn't play it just for these but to be in these names that are cheap you could absolutely get a benefit. >> i don't know if you have to be in the names that are cheap. i didn't play it specifically for the special dividend but i'm still in the name of trading down the market got slammed. 70% of all individual names traded down with it. i am still long the name. >> 107 special dividends have been announced in the russell 3,000 already this year. a little factoid for you. that is up from 58 last year. what do you make from that? >> it is amazing.
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the other thing not to forget about is the dividend that existed before the speculation about dividends. if you look at today's action. the dow jones index was up. it made a major rebound off the lows. these names are sold down. this index was sold down 13% before finding a base. i think people are coming back to reality. the fact that we are getting better news -- >> overreaction. >> the fc means that people are becoming more comfortable with trades that were very good trades for a reason because valuation. >> don't you think people are going to rush in to push back a little bit. i thought once we came back i thought we were going to see more negative spin out of d.c. i think you are going to see that. you are going to see guys rushing in grabbing the dividend. there is a sense of urgency. you have the lull where everyone thought they were going to play nice. boehner and obama are not going to speak as nice as they did
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prior to thanksgiving. >> we are not supposed to know what they are doing. if you look at the market's performance today -- >> they want to because they have no idea what is going on. >> we had a rally of almost 5%. the fact that the market held in tells me that people had a chance to think about the absurdity of overreactions. >> take a look at the december 35 calls. people coming after the dividend stocks are coming after them again. >> to all of you we will get back to the topic on hand in a moment. which retailer will come out on top for the war for your online dollars. we are separating the winners from losers. tonight the boss of hain is defending his company's name here on "fast money."
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bust or fiction? warmer weather hurting sales of uggs. this has driven the stock price and valuation lower could be priming it for an acquisition. >> i don't think it is in play at the moment however i absolutely would not be sure about this thing. here is a company that is quite vulnerable. the whole board is up for an election every year. they are a delaware corp. if anyone wanted to be hostile
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there are few impediments the valuation here even though it is up a little bit is cheap. i have been circling around it for a while. i feel like i have missed the last five. i would not short this thing. there could be truth to it a little down the road. >> and great balance sheet, tons of excess cash. >> about to get into men's ware. >> it is all about valuation. this name has absolutely been clobbered. it got down to $28. now it is towards the middle 30s. when you talk about valuations part of the reason it got to this level is they disappointed on their guidance. this is one of the names that does fit in many people's category. 46% of the shares are short. so there is a significant percentage out there of people fighting against this. i was looking at it today. january i was looking out to the
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calls. you can do a $5 or $10 call spread. very cheap to have an opportunity if there is a $50 number on it. >> and you know one important fact that we have failed to mention uggs originally australian. >> the option market is with karen and pete. they don't think a deal is going to get done. option is below average. the biggest trades were put buys. people were buying the 27.5 puts. i think they are using the pop as an opportunity to buy cheaper protection. so the option market is really dubious. pete makes a good point. i wouldn't be short it. if you wanted to play this maybe the way to do it is to buy calls. the big market isn't rushing into buy a bunch of these. >> thank you very much, scott. will this be the season of shopping online? this past friday's online sales
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already jumped 26% from a year ago. mobile shopping was up more than 18%. the question is which retailers are making the best moves in mobile and online this holiday season. let's bring in chief retail analyst. i believe you have been to australia 75 times. you are more than welcome on "fast money" today. who are the winners and losers that we can tell so far? >> i think wal-mart, target, big box retailers are doing exceptionally well. amazon is doing exceptionally well. there is a series of mid range who are getting together online. the winners will be characterized as retailers who have a strong integrated online presence and in store presence. we call it multi channeling retailing. >> wal-mart, these guys are the in store experience.
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aside from the striking workers people expected these guys to knock the cover off the ball. where do you see wal-mart? do they presale all of their stuff? >> listen, wal-mart on their sales on thursday night, the hourly sales hit the ball out of the park, did a great job. folks like target with the door busters. all of the door busters stuff worked exceptionally well. wal-mart was brilliant in their strategies around in-store retailing. i was at the stores on thursday night. i got to tell you -- >> how did your family like that? >> were you half way through the turkey like sorry i have to run. >> i didn't buy very much but i did buy a few things. >> that tie is nice. >> i bought this there, absolutely. >> how about a name like best buy? you bring up wal-mart and we know what best buy is under. are they able to compete when you are talking about the online
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world? >> they did a marvelous job on price matching. i happened to be at a store in phoenix. a guy was sitting at best buy sunday night waiting for $179 tv. he got it on thursday night. best buy did a good job on price matching. >> is it a layup to play amazon based on everything you just said. mobile on black friday, cyber monday. is it easier to play amazon and take it out of the loop and not worry about going into wal-mart and everything else even though they have -- >> it is interesting. amazon is doing a great job in their positioning of making shopping easier especially in the reminder base shopping. there are a lot of people who want to have the in-store experience. there is a new term called show rooming. 40% of the people i saw in the stores had ipads out, iphones out, smart phones out and looking for products.
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they did a great job. people were absolutely prepared for the shopping occasion. >> absolutely. thank you for sharing that with us. in the meantime do we have like a bottom line in terms of our viewers at home? what is the trade in terms of retail? >> amazon is obviously the guy positioned going into this and probably finishes the week very solid. at a valuation of 450 times current earnings this is a stock priced in the news. at 240 it is right at its 50-day. i think they are set up for disappointment based upon the numbers we are going to see. this is a traders call and valuation call. >> ebay is where you can still go. it is at a 52-week high. this is a very cheap and some of the partnerships have been phenomenal. >> a lot of love for that stock. you saw big trades. >> somebody has the same poinlt of view that tim does.
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they bought a bunch of calls in amazon. they bought about $8 million worth of calls in the stock of the january 250 strike call that made $6.50 being that the break even is $256.60. that is close to amazon's 52-week high. while amazon is a great name, it has had trouble making money recently. somebody wants to make the upside but they don't want to go crazy here because amazon's had a tough time making money recently. if they have trouble with best buy for example, if best buy is a competitor this season then amazon is overextended here. >> still to come on fast hain's ceo irwin simon speaks to us about why barren has it all wrong. it is a must-see interview. in the meantime john is joining
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us for a look at what is up next. >> we talk about apple, microsoft, amazon. i wanted to take a look at other companies that might feel a big impact from the big tablet boom. i'll have that for you after the break. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. you can stay in and share something... ♪ ♪ ...or you can get out there with your friends
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what is it? like it is 5:30 in the afternoon. tablets are stealing the spot light this year. looking at all the new accessories this year in which retailers are likely to fare the best. >> i ended up taking a different tact. i know you guys like derivative plays so i went looking for some in the tablet accessories space. we can only talk about apple so much. somebody is going to be making money. the best are accessories stocks that are likely to get slammed
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by the trend. ako has an $800 million market. logitech. acco owns meade, 5 star and trapper keeper and ipad cases but not enough of them. those paper related products the ipad is going to cannibalize are more than 90% of revenue. even in the computer products group revenue is shrinking because most of the stuff is for pcs and not tablets. logitech has arguably the best ipad keyboard. sales of the ipad keyboard tripled. logitech relies on the pc market. overall revenues will drop faster than ipad accessories can compensate. apple, amazon and microsoft make
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their own pretty nifty cases and covers for their tablets. for amazon it is a big part of the profit strategy. pc markets included a cheap case with the pcs. it makes it tough. >> hopefully not too tough to make money on it. >> i thought the acco thing was very interesting. they have a ton of debt. they are very levered. if things don't turn around for them that is problematic. i wonder if appleal is the place to go. what apple stock does is one thing. what the company does is different. >> apple stock, people are going to look at the numbers. ipads were 10% or all online orders 10% through ipads and 9% were iphones. apple was a major player in cyber. if you look at the stock if i look at apple somewhere around 590 you have major resistance. this is a nice snapback trade.
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i think you have to fade this because a lot of very good news is priced in. people know the stats. >> still quite a bit below the 700 a share. time for pops and drops, the movers that you might have missed. we have a pop with 3-d systems. what do you reckon? >> you know they launched two next generation printers. i find this whole space so fascinating. it is an extremely volatile name. buy 10% but don't go all in at once. >> we have a drop with mmr dropping by 22%. >> that is a gigantic drop. they still haven't gotten the results of the davy jones well test. i don't know how much was in it for this but that was a huge disappointment. i think there might be more disappointment tomorrow so
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sellers throw in the towel. >> kcg popping by 33%. >> there is still upside there. they are basing it on sum of the parts valuation. they say it is worth about 650 million. we are going for more sunshine with a pop by ebay. >> you look at the strength from sources like pay pal and deals with fed ex and some of the creditors out there. you look at it on a pu level. amazon trades. this trades in a 17 and lower if you go with the forward. very inexpensive stock. and this is the super bowl for them. this is what they understand. online is why they are killing it. >> we have a drop for mcdonalds. what do you reckon about mcdonalds? >> we talked about the executive turnover. worried about same story sales
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downgraded to neutral. nobody is going to put a sell on a company. it is like calling a new mother's baby ugly. it is not going to happen. it's still in the lower half of the recent range but you know the company is doing pretty well. >> did your mother ever get over it, scott? >> and look at the baby. and we also have a pop for the 12 days of christmas. it turns out the cost of the 364 items repeated has jumped 6% this year. so if you are planning on buying all the items it is like seven swans swimming and five gold rings you better be willing to spend $107,000 if you want to cut back a bit we recommend cutting out the seven swans because they will run you a cool
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seven grand. for swans? >> i want a recount. it is the natural foods company that is calling unnaturally good. hain celestial is fighting back. the ceo is going to reveal how his company is planning to stay one step ahead of the rest. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world...
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welcome back to "fast money" live in the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square. as the nation continues to hunger for healthier foods hain celestial stock continues to. the competition from other natural food brands or a slow down in acquisitions can cause the shares to lose a third of the value. in another fast exclusive ceo irwin simon joins us on the fast
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line. what is your response to that article? >> good afternoon everybody and good afternoon mandy and thank you and happy thanksgiving. i hope you ate your organic turkey. number one, there is no trouble. celestial is a 40-year-old brand and one of the first natural brands growing at 11%, sold in 65 countries around the world. if you look at starbucks they made a big investment in tea. tea is a big growth category and celestial is a great brand. in hain we reported sales up 33%. our consumption. barren's has compared us to our peers, companies like general mills, dannen, pepsi. you look at their growth and
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they're multiples and you can't compare me to multiples. if you look at whole foods and unify i think our multiple is lower. the big thing if you look at today 70% of our health care cost and spending is on self inflicted lifestyle. obesity today 40% of all men and women are obese. 35% of men. children obesity. so we have a major, major problem out there where eating healthy is not a trend. processed food and nothing in hain's products are processed. science will show how processed food will continue to add to obesity, diabetes and actually come back and look at where cancers come from. if you look at the value we created from hain and part of the article talked about acquisitions and our growth will slow and it was a -- >> i have to jump in.
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i just bought popcorn. it was an excellent product. when i think about the valuation of your stock i look at you selling an awful lot of product from whole foods and through wal-mart. i look at those as two outside metrics on either end of the spectrum. 32 times is the multiple for whole foods and wal-mart at 15. why do you deserve to be much closer to the whole foods multiple than the wal-mart multiple? >> look at whole foods growth and comps. growing a lot faster. whole foods has over 300 stores. we have over 2,000 products in whole foods, karen. not only wal-mart, amazon, kroger. the consumer is looking for more and more healthier products. when i started this business our products were only sold in natural food stores. in kroger we have over 700 products. if you walk into a supermarket
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you will find natural food sections. it is the consumer who wants gluten free products and natural organic products. we had one of our best thanksgivings where we sold over 1.2 million turkeys. and if you come back and look at what happened to a great brand in hostess which didn't fit today's consumer health trends. manufacturing was outdated. look what happened to the brand. that is what happened to a lot of companies. if you look at earth's best 40% of sales are coming from pouches. i said this before on your show. i think canned goods are going to go away where the consumer will look to have fresh soups. >> so now can you expand for us a little bit more since we are learning about how much people are monetizing mobile and everything else, people are shopping on their ipads? how big of a market is that for
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you? we are not talking about a trend here. you and i discussed this before. this is a way of life for people. it doesn't end. >> if you look at amazon two years ago we barely did any business. from moms today ordering baby food and diapers and formula has become one of our biggest customers. same with babies in toys r us. the consumer today is looking to order and eat healthier. if we look at our vegetarian products where younger teenagers that will be mucher moms and dads that are vegetarians and you look at them being introduced to hain products. competition is something that is out there all over the world today. i have had competition and karen mentioned doritos. i have had freeto and kelloggs. we do this every day. everything we do is basically natural organic.
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>> on acquisitions this came up in the article about you may be falling off your pace. any plan for acquisitions? >> we just announced the letter of intent and hope to close on blueprint which we think is a big opportunity from unpasteurized juice. we made a big acquisition in the u.k. and buying the brands. we think this is a great way for us to give to the u.k. we have talked to u.k. retailers. they want natural organic foods. there is a lot of acquisitions. one thing that is important. you heard me say before we don't have to do acquisitions. brands like earth's best have grown from 14 million to over 150. arrow head mills has grown to 60 million. some we owned from 1999 has
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grown from $9 million brand to over $60 million brand. we don't have to do acquisitions. if we do 25, $30 million acquisitions there is a lot of growth out there and a lot of opportunity. but the main them, what the consumer wants and the consumer wants healthier products. >> irwn simon thank you very much for your thoughts. what is the trade on hain. >> from a valuation perspective and irwin defined the growth factors. for those reasons i think $60 a share this is actually cheap. i think there is tremendous upside. i do not own it but i certainly am looking at it. i have loved whole foods and i think this is a reason to look at hain. a crucial week for europe. we are going to break down what is at stake this time and give you a winning trade to play it, as well. coming up next. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about low-cost investing.
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124% of gdp in 2020. let's bring in amelia. >> i think what has been happening over the past week is despite some back and forth headlines on the eurozone minister's meeting euro has been holding up quite well. this is an instance of buy the rumor and sell the facts. i believe that is what most investors thought would happen. so i expect euro to actually sell off over the next week or so e. in conclusion next week the german parliament has to vote on the changes to the greek bailout package. they are not entirely in the clear yet and euro is seemingly a currency that needs more good news to sustain it. i don't know what more good news we are going to have in the next couple of weeks especially with the debt negotiations coming up. that may be risk off for the market and strong dollar.
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>> euro is being surprisingly resilient in the face of a barrage of negative headlines. what levels should we be looking at? >> it has. i would be looking at 1.30 the figure to sell is. i look for 1.2850. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. america on the brink of a fiscal cliff. sorry, guys. >> 15 bucks. >> still no deal out of washington. are we any closer to a resolution. dennis gartman is laying out reasons for a fiscal cliff optimism. >> $20. >> it's coming up next. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.
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35 days until the looming fc deadline members of both parties say they are open to compromise. democrats indicating they are open to means testing medicare and many dedicating themselves to no new taxes pledge. what is the risk trade out
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there? let's ask dennis gartman. it is good to see you, dennis. >> always good to see you. how are yo >> i am very well indeed. is there reason for optimism here? >> i think there is actually. i think everybody understands how serious the circumstances are. i think we have seen a couple of senators looks like senator corker looks like he is ready not to abide by the pledge that he has made. looks like lindsey graham has said the pledge that they signed 20 years ago may no longer hold. we have seen representative king say he is going to stand down from his signing of the pledge. i think we have given into the notion that taxes probably have to be raised on the 1% as long as senator graham said he will stand down from his pledge as long as the democrats move on entitleme entitlements. >> that's the big difference there. do you think there is any reasonable chance that we can
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see any entitlement crimping on that side? boehner made it specific. he said substantial cuts to entitlements. i think that is code for obama care. we know there is no way they are opening up obama care or social security. do you think they are going to open up entitlements? >> i think they have to. i think everybody understands that is the only place that you can and must cut and that is the place they probably will cut. call me a cockeyed optimist. i have been down the line several times. this time i think they get it. i think the sherpas are in the background doing their due diligence making certain that the ts are crossed and is are dotted and we will come up with a resolution to this. i can't imagine we will continue to kick it down the road. remember i thought mr. romney
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was going to win the election. i have been wrong in the past and i can be wrong again. >> that is a big man to admit that. i am interested in how you are trading this. last week we had the embassies up 3% to 4%. is the optimism to get a deal done priced in? >> there is a good deal priced in. i was impressed the market came off of the bottom as far as it did. monday of last week we ran up against the trend line. we shouldn't be surprised by correction. if we can hold here for another day or two my guess is we go higher in equities. that is what a resolution will be strong for the equities market. some will say it will be bearish for the bond market. a lot of my friends have tried to sell the bond market short for three years and it has never worked. it will be supportive for equities. it is probably also supportive for raw materials, copper may be
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something to take a look at. >> take a look, then. good to see you on cnbc. sometimes our traders hit it right out of the park and sometimes they swing and miss. let's play the good, the bad and the ugly. first of all, the good. >> the good. we talked about morgan stanley. this was a call that to me morgan stanley has issues with the balance sheet. the things that worry me about morgan stanley is that their fixed income business is a low return business. it is something that will probably continue to be. this was a stock that is caught and arranged. 16.25 you have significant support. i think this is a stock that you don't need to run into. >> on to the bad now. a few weeks back tim got positive on the transports honing in on one name in
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particular. >> i think the entire space is ready to make the move. and again if you look at where the index closed it was at the 200. csx was up. like it. >> csx is down nearly 7%. >> sounded like no one could save me from myself on that one. people associate this one as they should. it is not cheap. cheap to its sector. i would stay in this trade at these levels. >> no ugly? >> there's no ugly here. >> we have your first move for tomorrow when we come back. what's next? he's going to apply testosterone to his underarm. axiron, the only underarm treatment for low t,
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or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use. it's the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and low-cost printing. it is time for the final trade. scott nations kick it off for us. >> yahoo. i like it even at this level. >> i think you can fade deere growth as growing. >> hain. i am a buyer on weakness. >> i like macy's. >> and last but not least pete. >> nokia a pullback today an opportunity for another stretch.

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